In a previous analysis of Bush spending vs. Obama spending from 2000 – 2009 we were able to outlay some of the additional expenditures in the Obama administration and its effect on the budget deficit vs. what the effect of the Bush administration had on the budget deficit in his 8 year term. I did this to create a little transparency and debunk some of the rumors that Obama has already spent more than Bush. In the same respect, I wanted to see how significant the spending has been in the Obama administration and how detrimental to our budget deficit it has been. While this was a surface analysis and many facets and arguments were not covered, I think it creates a picture that people can somewhat rely on to understand without being diluted with more propaganda.
I mentioned that I had left out the 2010 spending and that it has probably been pretty significant based on the amount of legislation passed. We have had Healthcare reform, Wall Street reform and so forth. These are major acts passed with major long-term implications. I chose to download and comb through 4 CBO summaries of the following bills. My intention is to report the CBO’s estimate of the 2010 costs of these bills; because they are a product of the current administration in the respect of being written and passed in 2010, and I left them out in my previous analysis. With a high budget deficit, it is important to know what we continue to spend above previous CBO budget estimates.
- H.R. 4173 – Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act
- H.R. 5297 – Small Business Lending Fund Act of 2010
- H.R. 4872 & 3590 – Healthcare Reconciliation Act of 2010
- H.R. 2847 – Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act of 2010
This is not the extent of legislation passed during 2010, but they all have areas of tax law which I am familiar with and that was my main criteria for choosing what to analyze. They are high impact legislation from a fiscal viewpoint.
After looking at the CBO summaries, here are the estimated costs.
- H.R. 4173 – $0 Spending outlays in the budget are significant between 2011 and 2015, but not for 2010. The analysis on spending in those years will come in my next post on this issue.
- H.R. 5297 – $10.1 billion
- H.R. 4872 & 3590 – $2 billion
- H.R. 2847 – $4.5 billion
These numbers are the result of the change in the federal budget deficit estimated by the CBO days before each bill was signed into law, so the actual expenditure numbers are a bit higher because there are revenue generating provisions in the bills as well.
Overall the total for 2010 is… a $16.6 billion increase in the budget deficit for 2010 from the legislation passed. With the numbers in front of me it seems that the costs are much more relevant over the next 10 years than in 2010 with many provisions having later effective dates. So far it looks like there has been an increase in discretionary and mandatory spending as well, but that would all come into the picture after the 2010 numbers are final. Much of that has to do with un-forseen circumstances and traditional recessionary consequences.
$16.6 Billion added to the deficit for 2010 shows that new legislation will not have an large immediate effect on the budget deficit. Later I will look at how the 5 to 10 year estimates on these same bills are estimated to impact our national debt / deficit. Some may be surprised that with certain revenue provisions in some of the bills, not all of the bills actually increase the deficit. This does mean there are areas of increased taxation however. I will try to dissect the impact of the spending vs increased taxation for a clear picture when I get into that. For now its safe to say that the 2010 fiscal spending does not appear to be at irresponsible levels, but that is not considering expenditures through 2020 from the same legislation. Next I will look at the same bills passed in 2010 that will have realized spending over the next decade to get a clear “overall” picture of the legislation.
Feel free to make comments with additional information or opinions in the comment section. This will only enhance the experience and knowledge provided no matter which political stance you take.